Should you buy bonds now? How to protect yourself.

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“If you think you’re going to roll over the next five years’ T-bills at 5%, you might be disappointed,” says Jones. “What would you do if yields fell? Because that’s what the inverted yield curve tells us — that the Fed expects yields to fall.”

While rates may not fall in the next six months as the Fed keeps rates high to conquer inflation, by staying short you stand to lose capital appreciation for long-term securities if rates move lower. Just as bond prices fell last year amid rising interest rates, they may rise next year amid falling interest rates.

Consider the potential for yields on treasury bills and monetary instruments to peak. “If we’re right and the Fed increases interest rates for the last time, all kinds of securities and money market funds have reached their limit,” Elswick says. “They’re not going to go up that much in terms of the return they provide.”

3. Inflation protection just got cheaper

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS — a type of Treasury security whose principal is indexed to inflation and used to protect investors against inflation — is another option for fixed-income portfolios.

Retirees should generally have some sort of protection against inflation, and TIPS is one of the best ways to do that, says Amy Arnott, portfolio strategist at Morningstar, who adds that TIPS returns are still attractive, especially if you stay with maturities of five years or less. .

The market is pricing in an expected inflation rate of 2.3% now. “If you buy TIPS at that level, where the current real yield is about 2.12% on a 5-year TIP, you have a kind of built-in hedge in case “Inflation turns out to be higher than what the market expects,” says Arnott. “I think that’s a real possibility – although we’ve seen good inflation numbers recently.”

Write to editors@barrons.com

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